The Avalanche and the Trade Deadline

As I sit here on February 22^nd typing this, we are less than 4 days from the trade deadline. We are in the midst of one of the most fun times of year for hockey fans. With only a handful of teams that don’t have realistic shots at the playoffs, a lot of teams are to believe that they are maybe one move away from making a run at a final playoff spot, or a division title, or even a trip to the cup finals. Speculation and rumors have been swirling for weeks, and continue to gain speed and frequency as the deadline nears, but a lot of people, myself included, wonder how much movement will there actually be.

A recent trend has developed in the league in recent years where UFAs traded at the deadline end up signing with the team they were traded from after the season. Just last year, we saw Nashville and Atlanta pay big prices for guys like Tkachuk and Forsberg only to see them move on after the season.

Throw in the likes of Doug Weight and Bill Guerin, and you begin to wonder why a GM would give up high picks and solid prospects for a rental player that will most likely be gone in 2-3 months unless they felt the move gave them a solid shot at the Stanley Cup. This year, the big “prize” appears to be Mats Sundin. Granted, there are a lot of teams that would love to have a player like that for a playoff run, as a fan, how would you like to see your favorite team basically give away a big package for a guy that in all indications will just return to Toronto in the Summer. On another note, you have guy like Marian Hossa. He’s a great player and could bring a lot to your team, but from all indications, he appears intent on testing the market in the summer. That’s not to say he wouldn’t sign an extension with the team he is traded to, but like the Sundin situation there is a risk. But what fun is life without taking risks right?

Due to things such as the salary cap and 3-point games, conference races for the playoffs have become tighter since the lockout. It seems like even teams that are 12^th or 13^th in the conference are just one 5-game stretch from being embedded in a playoff spot. Because of this, you have to wonder how many true sellers there are at this point. Toronto, Tampa, LA and Edmonton appear to be too far back, but there are 26 other teams that appear primed to make a late run at a spot. Remember the Avs 15-2-2 run at the end of last year? Then you have to figure which teams have the cap room to make a big splash. Columbus can technically take on a guy like Brad Richards and his $7.8 million salary, but they don’t seem like the kind of organization that would do something of that nature.

From all indications, the asking prices for the guys that seem most likely to be traded are pretty steep for a rental player. While there may be several smaller moves, I just don’t see the conditions being right for the movement of so-called impact players.

Now to the Avalanche. As of tonight, even with all the injuries that have occurred and continue to occur, they still find themselves only 4 points out of a playoff spot. In the past, this team hasn’t been shy about making a splash at the trade deadline, but with the current market conditions and cap limitations, I don’t see them making a move that will dramatically improve their chances for this season. The Avs do have three main players that will be unrestricted free agents this summer in Liles, Brunette and Arnason. Of the three, the Avs could get the most in return for Liles if they chose to do so, but I’m not sure they would or should. He will no doubt be looking for a raise from his current 1.4 million deal, and though he has had a rough year, I think the Avs should try to re-sign him. But then again it all comes down to how much will he be looking for, does he want to stay, and what does management think their chances of re-signing him are. From all indications, Kyle Cumiskey appears primed to take over the role that Liles has filled as a puck moving defenseman. He has great wheels, good hands, and the ability to create. Andrew Brunette has not been the same this year without Sakic. He seems slower, less consistent, and that has lead to a dramatic decrease in production compared to the previous two years. He is a veteran, and with the right linemates can be a solid top-6 winger. Tyler Arnason has had flashes of brilliance on offense this year, but will never be a Selke finalist. In his last 20 or so games, he has been great and put up a lot of points on the line with Svatos and Wolski, and maybe that could be enough for someone making a decent proposal to the Avalanche for him.

Some fans have already put a nail in this coffin of a season for the Avs, and have even thrown around the word re-build. If you look at the core of this team, they are not in need of a re-build as much as a re-tool. They have gone big chunks of the season without Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Paul Stastny, and now their best defenseman Brett Clark is out indefinitely. With the mini reemergence of Jose Theodore, where would this tema be if those guys had been able to stay healthy? The Avs have depth and an above average top 6 up front. They have a very capable checking line in Guite, Lapperiere and McLeod/McCormick who can provide energy and toughness. If there are things this team needs it would be a top line defenseman and a goaltending. Theodore has played well this year, and his play has gotten better as the year has gone on, but it’s not worth $6 million per year. The way he’s played and with the lack of available top-end goalies on the market, I wouldn’t mind the Avs making a play to re-sign him at a cheaper price. When all is said and done, and 1pm local time rolls around Tuesday the 26^th. I don’t see this team looking much different than it does today. Except for hopefully Joe Sakic will be in the lineup. But I’ll still be watching closely because just as important as what the Avs do is what the teams that are ahead of them in the standings do, especially Calgary and Vancouver.